Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate on July 6, 2004. Post-selection polls are in italics.

Tennessee 2004 Polls

Poll | Date

Sample

MoE

Bush

Kerry

Nader

Spread

2000 Vote

SUSA | 7/31-8/2

586 LV

4.2

48

46

-

Bush +2

Bush +3

Zogby Interactive | 7/26-7/30

821 LV

3.4

47.5

49.3

0.6

Kerry +1.8

-

Zogby Interactive | 7/19-7/23

n/a

3.5

46.9

49.1

0.6

Kerry +2.2

-

Zogby Interactive | 7/6-7/10

n/a

3.7

47.5

47.5

0.9

TIE

-

SUSA | 6/19-6/21

700 LV

3.8

51

41

-

Bush +10

-

Zogby Interactive | 6/15-6/20

n/a

3.7

57.4

38.6

0.8

Bush +18.8

-

Rasmussen | 6/16

500 LV

4.5

49

41

-

Bush +8

-

Zogby Interactive | 6/1-6/6

n/a

3.7

54.3

42.6

1.0

Bush +11.7

-

June: Bush +12.1. Post-Edwards: Kerry +0.5. Swing=12.6%

 

North Carolina 2004 Polls

Poll | Date

Sample

MoE

Bush

Kerry

Nader

Spread

2000 Vote

Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31

LV

5.0

50

45

-

Bush +5

Bush +13

SUSA | 7/24-7/26

906 L

3.3

51

44

-

Bush +7

-

Research 2000 | 7/10-7/14

600 L

4.0

49

44

-

Bush +5

-

Mason-Dixon

-

-

48

45

-

Bush +3

-

CNN/USAT/Gallup | 7/9-7/11

680 L

5.0

54

39

4

Bush +15

-

Rasmussen | 6/1-30

LV

5.0

49

42

-

Bush +7

-

Research 2000 | 6/13-6/16

600 L

4.0

47

42

-

Bush +5

-

June: Bush +6. Post-Edwards: Bush +5. Swing= 1%

(Note: the CNN/USAT/Gallup is an outlier. Including it the swing is -1%)

 

South Carolina 2004 Polls

Poll | Date

Sample

MoE

Bush

Kerry

Nader

Spread

2000 Vote

SUSA | 7/10-7/12

710 L

5.0%

51%

44%

-

Bush +7

Bush +16

Rasmussen | 6/1-6/30

n/a

5.0%

53%

36%

-

Bush +17

-

Rasmussen | 5/1-5/31

n/a

5.0%

49%

39%

-

Bush +10

-

June: Bush +17. Post-Edwards: Bush +7. Swing=10%

Key: R = Registered Voters, L = Likely Voters, A = Adults