polls.pop=[.473 .781 .884 2.913 .634 .287 1.953 1.110 1.190 1.631 .302 .279 .286 2.350 .714 2.281 1.062 1.437 1.109 .336 1.237 1.284 ]*10;

for j=1:numpolls

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% The calculation %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
%%%% Can assign bias and then cut-and-paste this to get result %%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
% Calculate z-score and convert to probability, assuming normal distribution.
polls.z=(polls.averagemargin+bias)./polls.SEM;
polls.probkerrywin=(erf(polls.z/sqrt(2))+1)/2;
polls.probbushwin=1-polls.probkerrywin;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
ztemp=(polls.averagemargin(j)-1/polls.pop(j)+bias)./polls.SEM(j);
polls.probkerrywin(j)=(erf(ztemp/sqrt(2))+1)/2;

EVpoly=[polls.probkerrywin(1) zeros(1, polls.EV(1)-1) 1-polls.probkerrywin(1)];
for i=2:numpolls
    nextEV=[polls.probkerrywin(i) zeros(1, polls.EV(i)-1) 1-polls.probkerrywin(i)];
    EVpoly=conv(EVpoly,nextEV);
end
histogram=fliplr(EVpoly);

% Cumulative histogram of all possibilities
cumulative_prob=cumsum(histogram);
electoralvotes=kerrysafe:kerrysafe+uncertainvotes;

% Calculate statistics from cumulative histogram
confidence_low=electoralvotes(max(find(cumulative_prob<0.025))); % 95-pct lower limit
KerrymedianEV=electoralvotes(min(find(cumulative_prob>0.5)));  % 50-pct outcome
confidence_high=electoralvotes(min(find(cumulative_prob>0.975))); % 95-pct upper limit
probability_Kerry_win=1-cumulative_prob(min(find(electoralvotes>=269)));
BushmedianEV=538-KerrymedianEV;

problow(j)=probability_Kerry_win;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
ztemp=(polls.averagemargin(j)+1/polls.pop(j)+bias)./polls.SEM(j);
polls.probkerrywin(j)=(erf(ztemp/sqrt(2))+1)/2;
EVpoly=[polls.probkerrywin(1) zeros(1, polls.EV(1)-1) 1-polls.probkerrywin(1)];
for i=2:numpolls
    nextEV=[polls.probkerrywin(i) zeros(1, polls.EV(i)-1) 1-polls.probkerrywin(i)];
    EVpoly=conv(EVpoly,nextEV);
end
histogram=fliplr(EVpoly);

% Cumulative histogram of all possibilities
cumulative_prob=cumsum(histogram);
electoralvotes=kerrysafe:kerrysafe+uncertainvotes;

% Calculate statistics from cumulative histogram
confidence_low=electoralvotes(max(find(cumulative_prob<0.025))); % 95-pct lower limit
KerrymedianEV=electoralvotes(min(find(cumulative_prob>0.5)));  % 50-pct outcome
confidence_high=electoralvotes(min(find(cumulative_prob>0.975))); % 95-pct upper limit
probability_Kerry_win=1-cumulative_prob(min(find(electoralvotes>=269)));
BushmedianEV=538-KerrymedianEV;

probhigh(j)=probability_Kerry_win;

end
problow
probhigh
[sortedlows i_low]=sort(problow);
[sortedhighs i_high]=sort(-probhigh);
sortedhighs=-sortedhighs;
Bush_wins_if=[i_low' 100*(1-sortedlows')]
Kerry_wins_if=[i_high' 100*sortedhighs']